BTC Daily Outlook Report- 22nd March, 2022
BTC 1D time-frame outlook
Bitcoin has now set the current price range as sideway chop for a period of 75 days. On the 1D chart, it is now clear that these are Higher Lows being set and we are moving towards our Supply zone. In other words, be ready to witness buyers cash out around the $45,000 level now.
There are certain indicators I also look at while planning trades, and few indicators like RSI, MAs and MACD showed Bullish divergence in play and they actually delivered. Overall, we can witness a more risk-on and bullish environment for crypto as a whole. Always check on indicators and patterns on larger time frames, such as, 12H, 1D and 1W to get clearer price action and ignore the noise.
In the chart below of BTC/USDT (on CoinDCX exchange), we can see that Bitcoin has formed an ascending triangle and now it’s going to start a consolidation phase. Flipping the $42,000 resistance was important and we need to see this level turn in support, and that would only be possible if we have some sort of consolidation phase in this range. We do not want to see $42,000 level being lost here for future bullish momentum.
Furthermore, the area between $44,000-$46,000 is also where the 200 daily EMA (exponential moving average) intersects, and the 200 EMA is a super strong moving average as it has always supported price in an uptrend and price has always traded below it during a downtrend. So we would need a strong reclaim above the 200 EMA to witness strong bullish momentum and flip it into support.
See the amazing confluence of the Supply zone and 200 EMA on the above chart. Breaking this level will take some time and will not be easy to say the least. Once we stay above the 200 EMA, the next major hurdle stands at $48,000, but for now we should focus on two factors only
- Strong candle breakout above the 200 daily EMA
- $42,000 level should become a strong support
If Bitcoin does get rejected at this current price level then I see BTC easily retesting the following levels:
- $39,000 (and potentially range low of $37,700)
Also important to note is the bullish price action can be attributed to Tera buying almost $125 million of BTC for its UST reserve protocol. We want to see more inflow of fresh retail money to start a bull trend.
BTC 4H time-frame outlook
BTC is now clearly struggling to break above the recent high of $43,361 and is now been rejected from there twice. Also on the 4H chart below, we can see a clear Lower High being set with this pump.
So either we get support from the 20 MA (purple line) and the 50 MA (yellow line), failure to do will have price easily lose the $42,000 level and sweep the range low with support at $39,700-$38,000 level.
If bulls manage to break above the pink trendline in the chart above, then we can see a beautiful sail close for tomorrow and assume that the bullish trend is setting itself up. Till then it’s best to be neutral with the current price action and not FOMO into positions.
Risk management and capital preservation should be the main focus is such times.
A huge shoutout to CoinDCX for giving me this opportunity to write such a detailed report and be a part of the #CoinDCXpathbreaker ambassador program, enabling me to share such knowledge with everyone in the crypto space.