Bitcoin Analytics Report- April, 2022
Starting a new month, we will be visiting Bitcoin on the Monthly, Weekly, Daily, 4 hourly and 1 hour time-frame and charting from the CoinDCX Pro app.
Through this series of report, we will try and identify patterns, indicators and price structure to gauge our positions accordingly. Also, I’ll be adding levels of support for your own analytic reference and study.
BTC 1M chart outlook
The 1M chart is the cleanest way to understand price-structure. It absolutely eliminates the choppy price action of the lower time frame charts and helps gauging price by seeing the candlesticks.
On the 1M chart above, we can see the month of April opened with a green candle and the previous month also closed with a strong bounce, and green candle. This clearly indicates that bullish pressure is around in the market and we may see more bullish momentum building up in the coming weeks.
Bringing up the RSI (Relative Strength Indicator) on the chart above, we can see that the RSI is around the 54 level and I would say it’s neutral. The RSI setting for the above chart is 70:30 to indicate Overbought and Oversold. If you see the run up we had to our ATH for the first time, we actually had 3 months of continuous overbought conditions, so currently nothing to specify here for April,2022
BTC 1W chart outlook
The Weekly chart for Bitcoin looks interesting and we can now dive into technicals here.
- The candle went all the way to the Major Resistance (pink trendline) at $48,000 level and got rejected
- Currently price is trading with the Upper area of of Supply box (red box) and is ranging between $45,300-$47,000
- The weekly candle is now a Doji and that means it’s indecisive in nature. If the candle closes in its current form on Sunday, then we can expect price movement on either side in the upcoming new week.
The above chart for BTC on 1W clearly shows price within a macro range currently and within an ascending triangle; a bullish pattern. The above clearly indicates that the price has been within an accumulation range for the whole of 2021.
The macros range for Bitcoin could be derived between $60,500- $29,500 level. We cannot undervalue how important the $29,500 support is for our price now. It’s the ULTIMATE SUPPORT for this bull run and we cannot risk breaking below that level.
As stated above, the weekly candle is currently forming a Doji and price needs to avoid a closure like that. A breakout above the $48,000 is an absolute necessity at the moment for bullish momentum to form or we risk at setting another swing high failure.
BTC 1D chart outlook:
The 1D chart is now starting to show the sellers power and also showing strength of the upper area of Supply to us.
The last pullback was quite fierce in nature and made us break below the the supply box as well. This was followed by a strong bounce on the upside with a penetration of the supply box, with a bullish hammer candle close. Now again we are seeing a bearish candle forming, a result of another price rejection.
Overall price structure currently is leaning more toward the bullish side, but we require price to reclaim the $46,500 level with strong volume heading into the weekend. If this happens, then only can we bet on a price reversal or this might just have been a dead cat bounce.
Bitcoin has shown immense strength in the past couple of days and this has a lot to do with the Luna foundations purchase for their $UST stable coin. I am very neutral on that stance, since a single buyer can push and sustain price at a level only till the buying is in progress.
Levels to watch out-
- $46,500 needed to avoid any major downside risk
- $48,500 for immediate price reversal confirmation
- $55,000+ probable target above the reclaim of $48.5k
BTC 4H chart outlook
The 4H chart for Bitcoin shows we are back to a choppy price-action after a parabolic move up. The current 4H candle is again on the edge of our marked Supply area and we see the sellers have the upper hand, at-least for now.
The local uptrend has not broken yet, as we have clearly had a Higher-Low set after that retest. A pullback after such a heavy move up should be seen as healthy.
Zooming in the chart, there was a V shape reversal from Bitcoin, but it wasn’t good enough. Why I say that? Because price failed to set a new high, but set a new Lower high after the failed breakout of $48,000 level. I have pointed this out above as well, $48,500 is a must to achieve to not only a life downside risk, but also to pave our way to a new ATH.
BTC 1H chart outlook
The 1H chart shows us bearish pressure all over the place. We have broken the local trend line support (blue line) and have also broken the supply box (red box) with the current candle drawdown.
RSI is also moving towards the oversold territory and price does not seem to be getting any sort of bounce. The next area of defence for price would be at $44,236, if that level fails, we will face a deeper correction towards the $42,075 level and a bounce there is a must to prevent the macros bullish structure from getting destroyed.
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