Bitcoin outlook for March, 2022
With the dollar (DXY) at local support, should it hold and continue it’s upward trajectory then we can expect BTC to pull back. Should it drop below then BTC will most likely rally.
Currently investors are viewing BTC as a risk-on asset more than an inflation hedge. Market uncertainty is increasing with every news headline, and the best trade right now would be NO TRADE.
By creating a local range from the local high to the local low we can identify key areas that we expect price to react. From here we can build a case based on price action. The month of March is continuously seeing a range bound movement between $39,000-$42,000.
It’s become imperative for BTC to break above $45,000 at the earliest for the bulls to take complete control.
On the 4H chart (chart 1) we can see the high timeframe (HTF) demand zone, the channel bottom line/range low and a major support level at 37253. These, combined with a neutral RSI and low volume cement a belief for a short term bearish bias.
Should price lose this support and the 20 period moving average, then a move back towards the range low of $32,000 is possible.
The 1H chart (above) shows a declining RSI and stochastic RSI. The 20MA will offer the last area of support before price targets the range lows at 37155.
Overall sentiment of the market is in anxiety and price is just consolidating to choose a side. Bulls need to take control with a high volume candle as well as with an RSI breakout towards the upside to fuel an uptrend that can last.