BITCOIN- March, 2022 Closing Report


So we are the end of March, 2022 and let’s see where we stand at this closure for the most important assets- BITCOIN

BTC/USDT 1M chart on CoinDCX

The 1M chart on BTC looks very clean and the candle is also looking to close as a bullish one. After 3 consecutive months of Red from its recent ATH, we are now seeing 2 consecutive green candles, and the monthly candle closes in 8 hours from this report (5:30am IST). So I will leave the 1M chart here as it is, since it does not have much to elaborate on.

BTC/USDT 1W chart on CoinDCX

The 1W (weekly) chart candle closure does not look very inspiring honestly. If this candles actually closes like as a bearish one, we might witness a few red coming weeks in crypto. Why I believe that could be true, I will explain in details on the other time frames.

Right now price is well above the 200 EMA (yellow line), the 50 MA is also below the price and lies around the $43,200 level and we might get a good support from it if we have a pullback. Currently there is not much technical patterns in formation on the Weekly chart and we will have to gauge that with the candlesticks itself in such situations.

BTC/USDT 1D chart on CoinDCX

The 1D chart is giving us a lot of signals and technical levels to gauge price-action. I will start with the resistance:

Now we have 3 major resistances on the above chart-

  • The Supply area box in red
  • The Major Resistance line (pink trendline)
  • The 200 MA (purple line)

What might be very surprising for beginners is that all three above mentioned levels are in confluence with each other and at approx same price levels. The 200 MA and the Major Resistance at $48,190 level will be a very tough level to overcome for BTC, and especially to break above in 8 hours from the time of this report.

Second worrisome scenario would be the current candle has penetrated below the Upper area of Supply box (red box) and that is when I expected sellers to step in for profit-booking (refer to my previous BTC reports for the same). Falling through this level with a candle closure will make us head down near the $45,000 level.

Third worrisome scenario is BTC went on a parabolic price pump and without having any retests with any significant volume, it has failed to create any major level of supports and if the downside pressure comes, we might face a deeper correction.

I truly believe if the market sentiment turned full bullish and macro factors also turned positive, we should have seen a reclaim of the $48,000 level without such a struggle and eventual breakdown. Not very bullish IMO.

I have clearly marked 3 support levels to watch out for in the chart above and you can refer to it for your risk management.

BTC/USDT 4H chart on CoinDCX

The 4H chart clearly shows us price weakness, buyers exhaustion and even the volume profile seems super flat. Currently the price has faced multiple rejections from the upper area of the Supply box (red box) and is now hanging very loosely at the edge. Closure below the red box would send us down fast and we may get support at the bottom trend-line of the rising wedge, but that needs to be seen.

I honestly feel if we fail to break above $48,000 soon and reclaim that level, we will start facing some serious downside pressure and if that happens we might see BTC set a new low in the macro price structure. This is a make or break level for Bitcoin.

BTC/USDT 1H chart on CoinDCX

The final 1H chart I am using here is only to show the volume profile of Bitcoin. If you see the volume indicator in the chart above, we can clearly see there was huge sell volume on the last candle that closed red and this shows sellers actually stepped in and taking controls from the bulls.

The above chart is only being used for volume indicator, please refer the 1D and 4H chart above for absolute clarity on levels and price direction.

Bitcoin is at a critical level and I will keep it short.

  • Break $48,000 and avoid downside pressure
  • Break $53,000 level for new ATH
  • Fail to break $48,000, find support at $42,000
  • Break below $42,000 (major support) and BTC will look at setting a new low for this cycle

A huge thank you to CoinDCX for giving me this opportunity to write such a detailed report and be a part of the #CoinDCXpathbreaker program, enabling me to share such knowledge with everyone in the crypto space.



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Mohnish Isaac Kariappa

I make use of advanced Technical Tools and On-Chain Data to make crypto easy to understand for everyone in the crypto community. #CoinDCXpathbreaker